Euro Breakup Index jumps to 24.1%
The chances that a euro area member state will leave the euro in the next 12 months has jumped, as 24.1% of investors surveyed by sentix in November believe the scenario is likely, poll results released on Tuesday showed. The highest level of the Euro Breakup Index (EBI) ever was 73% in July 2012 and its lowest reading was 7.6% in July 2014.
According to the poll, most private and public investors see Italy as most likely to exit the Eurozone, with its EBI at 19.3% as the country is due to vote on constitutional reforms pushed for by Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. Meanwhile, possible capital flight on a drop in Italy’s target 2 balance and uncertainty over the future of the country’s banks, bring more fears to investors.
However, Italy is not the only country investor see as a possible dropout. France’s EBI hit an all-time high of 4.75% as right-wing politics dominates the county ahead of next year’s presidential election. Meanwhile, Dutch EBI increased to 3.4%.