The Pathway for Automotive Transmissions: Global Issues & Opportunities, 2019-2030

9/2/2019, 12:25 PM (Source: GlobeNewswire)

Dublin, Sept. 02, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The "Pathway for Automotive Transmissions: Issues and Opportunities" report has been added to's offering.

This report examines current trends influencing the design of automotive transmissions for light duty vehicles and offers educated predictions of how these might play out by 2030.

The simultaneous emergence of four megatrends - electrification, automated driving, connectivity, and shared mobility are making it more difficult for manufacturers to forecast trends to guide them in investment and development.

The report now also assesses topics such as the hidden costs of global warming as it relates to automotive transmissions, the future of diesel in Europe, the switch from NEDC to WLTP and related fallout, how the US addresses global warming, as well as recent developments in China, all of it underpinned by original commentary and forecasts.

Over the next several years, if not decades, the industry will likely continue to develop a wide variety of transmissions to support both traditional and electric powertrain technologies.

This report explores possible answers to these and other key questions, and attempts to assign probabilities to the outcomes. The purpose of these probabilities is not to attempt to predict the future so much as imagine the possibilities available, and attempt to do so with as much insight as is possible today.

The focus of the report is understanding the trends behind current developments and extracting insights to help the reader plan and make sense of the rapidly changing environment for automotive transmission manufacturers and suppliers.

So what transmission development trends should companies focus on to be sure they remain competitive in the rapidly shifting global markets?

Five key strategic questions on the future of automotive transmissions

  1. What is the probability that the emissions and fuel economy regulations projected for 2025 through 2030 will remain as currently envisioned? If they change, in what direction?
  2. Will the current trend of downspeeding to optimize the operating range of the ICE continue?
  3. How will electrification impact the development of the transmission?
  4. Will electrified powertrains demand significantly different development paths for hybrid and full EVs?
  5. What is the likelihood that a significant technical disruptor will be introduced in the next few years, significant enough and early enough to change the outcome predicted by the consensus view by 2030, all other factors remaining equal?

Key Topics Covered

Chapter 1: Introduction

1.1 The automotive industry's assessment: Is there consensus on the future of the transmission?
1.2 Key questions uncertainties and trends
1.3 What do the opinion leaders have to say?
1.3.1 Magna's Dr Joerg Gindele on opportunities for multi-speed transmissions
1.3.2 GWM's Gerhard Henning and application-specific growth
1.3.3 Prof. Dr. Leopold Mikulic sees growth in CVTs and AMTs
1.3.4 GM's Larry Nitz and connected transmissions
1.3.5 FEV's Professor Dr.-Ing. Stefan Pischinger on multi-speed transmissions and CVTs
1.3.6 Ford's Carsten Weber on intelligent performance and transmissions
1.3.7 BMW's Peter Quintus on MT and M applications
1.3.8 Porsches Gerd Bofinger and a transmissions portfolio
1.3.9 Nissan's Toshihiro Hirai hybrid vision
1.3.10 Will any current transmissions disappear by 2030?
1.4 The industry's best-fit consensus view

Chapter 2: Developing transmissions that cut emissions

2.1 What will global emissions regulations look like in 2030?
2.2 Global warming demands action: the cost of cleaner technologies
2.3 A US case study on the cost vs benefit of green technologies
2.4 Making every Joule count: optimising the ICE energy balance
2.5 Chapter 2 summary - forecasts and uncertainties

Chapter 3: Arguing the technology: From MTs to transmissions for automated and connected cars

3.1 Unlocking the potential of down-speeding with more ratios
3.2 When is enough too much: what is the optimum number of gears?
3.3 Is there life left in the manual transmission?
3.3.1 How a family of transmissions cuts costs
3.4 Automating the manual transmission
3.5 Applying novel e-clutch solutions to automate the MT
3.6 Can the AT beat the MT at the efficiency game?
3.7 Possibility of DCTs challenging the AT market in America?
3.8 CVTs can still improve ICEs' efficiency
3.8.1 The technologies driving modern CVTs
3.9 Designing transmissions for connected and autonomous vehicles
3.9.1 Connectivity and smart shifting
3.10 Chapter 3 summary - forecasts and uncertainties

Chapter 4: Re-defining the transmission's role in an electrified future

4.1 Full electric vehicle transmissions and efficiency
4.2 Is there a case to be made for unique micro and mild hybrid transmissions?
4.3 Who is doing what? Solutions for full hybrid EV transmissions
4.4 Chapter 4 - forecasts and uncertainties

Chapter 5: OEMs place their bets on future trends

5.1 Collaboration gives two US companies the best of both worlds heading to 2030
5.1.1 GM's transmission plans
5.1.2 Ford's transmission strategy
5.2 BMW adopts different approaches to efficiency and driver experience
5.2.1 Fine-tuning the DCT
5.2.2 BMW's high performance 8G45 AT
5.3 Toyota's TNGA platform and the future of the company's transmissions
5.4 Honda's compact, high performing 10 speed transverse AT
5.5 Hyundai's Smartstream 8AT focuses on efficiency and fuel economy
5.6 New technologies demand unique solutions: Nissan's variable compression engine and Jatco's CVT8
5.7 What does Chrysler's first DHT reveal about the company's plans for transmissions in an electrified future?
5.7.1 An ICE, two motors and four driving operations define the eFlite DHT
5.8 Chapter 5 summary - forecasts and uncertainties

Chapter 6: Transmissions for the Chinese market: A perspective on the challenges

6.1 Chinese drivers demand unique solutions
6.2 How will China's NEV program impact transmission development?
6.3 Chapter 6 summary - forecasts and uncertainties

Chapter 7: What will the transmission market look like in 2030?

7.1 What impact will electrification have on the transmission market in 2030?
7.2 Global transmission sales by the numbers
7.3 Chapter 7 summary - forecasts and uncertainties

Chapter 8: New transmission technologies

8.1 Ricardo's novel approach to replacing the MT
8.2 ZF's AWD electrified drivetrain refines AMT gearshifts
8.3 Revolutionary CVTs set to make their mark by 2030
8.3.1 Beltless CVT cuts efficiency losses
8.3.2 An efficient CVT for EVs?
8.4 A modular hybrid transmission concept for AT, 48V, HEV and PHEV
8.4.1 Compact longitudinal hybrid concept
8.5 The key to 48-volt full-time EV lies with the transmission
8.6 Chapter 8 summary - forecasts and uncertainties

Chapter 9: Looking past 2030: The next 20 years of the transmission

9.1 The impact of electrification and the high road scenario on transmission development
9.2 Low road scenario - technology and electrification take a breather
9.3 Chapter 9 summary - forecasts and uncertainties

Addendum A: Low viscosity universal fluids as a solution for e-mobility applications

Addendum B: The role of simulation in developing transmissions for important and untapped new markets

Addendum C: The world is hotter than we thought: The impact of new studies and emissions targets

Companies Mentioned

  • BMW
  • Chrysler
  • FEV
  • Ford
  • GM
  • GWM
  • Honda
  • Hyundai
  • Jatco
  • Magna
  • Nissan
  • Porsche
  • Toyota
  • ZF

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